I want to follow on from my previous article by taking a look at the overall horse racing market and the accuracy of the odds. These days unlike in the old days then the markets are all linked to each other electronically. This means that more or less they are all aware of what the others are doing. This is why there are really no stand out prices now with some betting firms over others. Some firms may want to be stand out to get some extra business but they will not be stand out for too long at too high a price disparity.
There is basically one huge factor that moves prices in the markets and that is volume. This more than any other drives the price but where does that volume come from and why? If you can ascertain that then you have a good chance of exploiting price movements on the betting exchanges. In days gone by then arbitrage opportunities were far more prevalent than what they are now because lines were so much more out of sync with each other.
However the internet along with electronic execution systems and information networks have closed that gap to a stage where virtually no arbitrage situations exist and the ones that do are quickly filled. Because the markets are basically joined at the hip then this essentially means that vast amounts of information are pumped into them. This makes the generic odds of today’s sporting events pretty accurate. It also means that beating these odds is very difficult with conventional methods.
However in markets that are information sensitive like horse racing then steamers and drifters happen on an almost daily basis. The basic premise behind this is because horse racing markets terminate at the commencement of the race and this can and does lead to an almost stampede herd like effect of betting which the smart punter can capitalise on. So you need to remember at all times that the overall betting market is a very accurate one and all of the betting firms are almost united in so much that they are one huge pool of accumulated opinion and knowledge.
This makes the prospect of beating them very tough for the average man in the street and that is something that the average punter needs to take on board.